Posted by: Editor on Aug 03, 2006 – 09:39 AM
newsandinfo Tropical Storm Chris weakened slightly Wednesday but stayed on track to become an 80-mph hurricane by Monday and pass precariously close to the Florida Keys.
But because Chris still is four to five days away, the projections could be wrong, said meteorologist Robert Molleda of the National Weather Service in Miami. Just a slight shift could bring the storm closer to the Florida peninsula, he said.
“It’s not too early for people to be alert,” Molleda said.
Late Wednesday, Chris was northeast of St. Thomas, about 1,000 miles southeast of Miami. It was moving northwest with sustained winds of 60 mph.
Chris’ path depends largely on whether high pressure builds north of it. If so, that could keep the system on a course south of the Florida mainland, forecasters said.
For now, the storm’s core was expected to pass about 100 miles south of Miami on Sunday afternoon and just south of Key West early Monday morning.
That path is similar to the one taken by Hurricane Rita, which sliced between Cuba and Key West last September, bringing heavy winds and rain in parts of Miami-Dade County.
Chris has a small circulation, with tropical-force winds extending just 80 miles from its core. If the system remains south of the mainland, the peninsula would escape the most severe weather, authorities said.
On Wednesday afternoon, a hurricane-hunter aircraft discovered that Chris’ winds and internal pressure had weakened, probably the result of being temporarily pulled apart by wind shear, said Jennifer Pralgo, meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County.
“We still do expect it to make hurricane strength,” she said. “It just won’t be as fast as earlier forecasts.”
Chris already has brought heavy rain and strong winds to the northern Leeward Islands, but no severe damage or injuries were reported.
The system could produce 2 to 4 inches of rain in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, with some areas possibly seeing up to 8 inches, the hurricane center said. About 600 tourists were evacuated from two small islands off the Puerto Rican coast.
In South Florida, storm-wary residents started to buy water and other supplies on Wednesday, and emergency managers braced for the possibility of hurricane watches or warnings being posted by Friday.
“We certainly are well within the cone of uncertainty, and everyone should be mindful of that,” said Tony Carper, Broward County’s director of emergency management.
Chris was forecast to march north of Hispaniola on Friday, into the southern Bahamas on Saturday and north of Cuba on Sunday. A hurricane watch was posted for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Although the Keys currently are under the greatest threat, emergency management officials said they would be cautious in ordering evacuations because of the area’s all-important tourism industry.
“We know we’re going to get impacted,” said Irene Toner, Monroe County director of emergency management. “But when we make the call to evacuate, we want to make sure it’s the right call.”
The South Florida Sun-Sentinel is a Tribune Publishing newspaper.